The global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) landscape in 2025 is poised for a robust year, building on the momentum of a strong 2024. With dealmakers optimistic amid improving capital markets and a more favourable interest rate environment, legal trends and economic policy—particularly from the United States and China—are playing an outsized role in shaping both global and Australian deal activity. This article explores recent legal developments, industry-specific valuation trends (especially EBITDA multiples), and how global trade dynamics such as the Trump tariffs could influence the dealmaking landscape in Australia and beyond.

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Legal and Regulatory Trends in M&A: Australia and Abroad

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Australia: FIRB and ACCC Oversight

Australia’s M&A environment is currently supported by stable regulatory oversight, but there’s a growing push for modernisation. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) continues to review transactions closely for competition risks, particularly in sectors like retail, energy, and telecommunications where market concentration is already high. The ACCC has also signalled an interest in digital platform mergers, following international scrutiny of tech consolidations.

The Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) remains a gatekeeper for foreign inbound M&A, particularly in sensitive sectors such as defence, infrastructure, and agriculture. In recent years, FIRB has aimed to increase transparency and processing efficiency, encouraging cross-border activity while maintaining national security protocols.

The government’s efforts to encourage sovereign investment and diversify Australia's economic base—especially in renewable energy, healthcare, and critical minerals—have led to a rise in foreign bidders eyeing strategic Australian assets.

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Global Legal Developments

In the U.S., the regulatory environment is evolving. Despite efforts to streamline merger approvals under the Trump administration's renewed tenure, antitrust scrutiny has not disappeared. Regulators are still delaying or re-evaluating high-profile deals—like Capital One’s attempted $35 billion acquisition of Discover Financial—highlighting that not all large transactions will receive a rubber stamp, especially those affecting consumer finance or technology markets.

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These regulatory considerations are relevant for Australian companies expanding globally, as compliance with multiple antitrust jurisdictions—especially the U.S., EU, and China—adds layers of legal complexity.

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Industry Trends and EBITDA Multiples Across Key Sectors

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Technology and Data Infrastructure

Technology M&A remains strong globally and within Australia. There is significant interest in software-as-a-service (SaaS), artificial intelligence, and cloud infrastructure. Notably, data centres have emerged as high-value assets, seen in the AirTrunk acquisition by Blackstone, valuing the company at an estimated A$24 billion. In Australia, tech transactions are commanding EBITDA multiples of 15x to 25x, especially in sub-sectors with strong recurring revenue and scalability.

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Healthcare and Life Sciences

The healthcare sector continues to see consolidation in both providers and biotech companies. Australia's robust R&D sector, combined with a strong healthcare system, makes it attractive for international acquirers. The EBITDA multiples in healthcare range from 10x to 18x, depending on factors like proprietary IP, clinical pipeline stage, and regulatory approvals.

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Financial Services and Fintech

There is active consolidation in the financial sector, including regional banks and emerging fintech players. The trend is being driven by digitisation, compliance costs, and a need to scale. With the return of more lenient U.S. bank merger guidelines under Trump, there's speculation this may encourage more Australian institutions to look outward for growth. EBITDA multiples typically range from 8x to 14x, with higher valuations for profitable, scalable fintechs.

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Energy and Critical Resources

Australia's energy sector—both traditional and renewable—is attracting inbound capital from private equity, superannuation funds, and global infrastructure players. Australia's critical minerals sector (e.g., lithium and rare earths) is of particular strategic interest, given its role in global electrification. Renewable energy assets often receive EBITDA multiples of 10x to 15x, while traditional energy sits in the 6x to 10x range.

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Consumer and Retail

Retail M&A in Australia is undergoing a shift, driven by e-commerce growth, changing consumer behaviour, and supply chain optimisation. While discretionary spending is under pressure, companies with strong online channels or unique brands still command respectable EBITDA multiples of 7x to 13x, especially in niche segments like wellness, sustainable products, and luxury goods.

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Global Trade Tensions: Could Trump’s Tariffs Influence M&A?

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One of the more unpredictable variables in the M&A outlook is the return of Trump-era trade policies. Although a 90-day pause on tariffs announced in early 2025 gave markets a short-term boost, many analysts are cautious about the broader implications. The potential reintroduction of tariffs—particularly on goods from China and the EU—could impact supply chains, raw materials pricing, and corporate planning.

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For Australian companies with global supply chains, especially in manufacturing, electronics, and agriculture, uncertainty over tariffs may:

• Lead to more defensive M&A, as companies try to shore up domestic supply or nearshore production.

• Encourage vertical integration, with businesses acquiring suppliers or logistics providers to reduce exposure to geopolitical risks.

• Result in delayed deals if valuation models are disrupted by pricing volatility or expected changes in market access.

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On the other hand, increased protectionism in the U.S. could benefit Australia in some scenarios, especially as an alternative trading partner for countries seeking more stable supply chains outside of China-U.S. dynamics.

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Conclusion: Opportunities Amid Uncertainty

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Australia's M&A market in 2025 is navigating an inflection point. Regulatory conditions are improving incrementally, and Australia remains a highly attractive destination for international buyers, especially in strategic industries. High EBITDA multiples in tech, healthcare, and renewables reflect strong fundamentals and global demand for future-facing assets.

However, geopolitical uncertainty, including the ripple effects of American tariffs, adds complexity to strategic planning. Whether through vertical integration, diversification, or capitalizing on undervalued assets, successful M&A in 2025 will depend on nimble strategy, deep due diligence, and a clear understanding of global regulatory trends.

With careful navigation, this could be one of the most opportunistic M&A environments in years—particularly for Australian firms with cross-border ambitions.